IT IS always a hazardous operation predicting fundamental shifts in British politics on the basis of the evidence of mid-term by-election results. A whole 'Liberal revival' was widely predicted on the basis of the Orpington by-election in 1962 took place.
Similar wide-sweening predictions are being made on the basis of the Warr- a revival which never in fact ington by-election result, which Roy JCHKIS CO 42 per cent of the poll and came within 1,700 votes of beating the Labour candidate Douglas Hoyle.
Turnout The Tory vote collapsed completely, from 9,000 to 2,000. Since the total turnout was virtualiv the she general belenion 1s the general election, safe to assume that up to 7,000 Tory votes Jenkins - many of them 'tactical' anti-Labour votes the nearly 3,000 votes which time went to the Liberals (who were standing aown in Jenkins favour), this amounts somelling like 10,000 votes from non-Labou voters. out of a total o 12.500 Argue Nonetheless, a significant minority the Labour vote switched to the SDP. The Labour right have been quick to argue that this represents the disastrous effects of the shift to the left inside the party. Benn and Scargil that it is the result of an of socialist poliabsence ches media support of the media support of the SDP.
However the SDP vote is put together in Labour seats, there is no doubt that the aim of the SDP is to deprive Labour of a general election victory, playing une same role as the short-lived democratic split from the 1s o- party system by gent two-party system getling enough Ivirs to nola the balance of power after the next election As the price for coSDP would demand the establishment propor tiona representation (PR - thus institutionalising a system of permanent coalltions. PR might well be an inviting solution so long as sharply polarised es are sharply makes difficult for Labour ever to get an overall majority.
Crisis The vith an SDP-Liberal all ance. would also be highly improbable that the Tories would ever get an overall majority either. Permanent coalition government would tend to permanently 'centre British policies — not so usurgeoisie needs radical useful when even solutions to the crisis.
The which will be debated in the labour movemenl whether the SDP is media flash-in-the-pan, or whether take significant slice Labour vote at the general election. The second, subsidiary question is to what extent this possibility Blame caused by the move to the lett inside the party - is Bennism to blame?
Much hinges on the side the Labour Party between now and the election If Benn were elected deputy leader, and the left were carry the major , policy debates at Labour's SepAl clice. then without doubt 20-30 Labour MPs would defect to the SP. Crush It would be naive to believe that socialist policies ала а left wing leadership the Labour Parwould automatically crush the SDP threat. The left-wing policies automatically unite the whole working class, regardless of cumstances, is mythical even when Labour has 1951,S lanes a tie in something cent : working class VULC Tories. Slice But the fact that the SDP could well take a slice the working class Labour Fault of the Lab our lehe vote Those to blame are the Wilsons, Callaghans and Healeys who have made large numbers of working people deeply cynical tha Lavoll ever solve their problems.
One point has evaded the • media commentators win been quick Po Marine near hate represents to Labour. It is virtually excluded that there will be any upturn in general electon Tories will almost certain. ly suffer a major defeat. unless they completely change their policies and dump Thatcher for good nicasule disillusioned Tory voters going over to the SDP, it is not excluded that the Tories could end up being the third party after a general election. If that happened, then pro portional representation and a historic defeat fo the Tory party would be the outcome.