ACCORDING to one commentator, the history of the world economy in the last decade can be summed up by the fact that in 1970 an ounce of gold was worth $35 and a barrel of oil $1.20, whereas in 1979 gold has topped $500 an ounce and a barrel of oil will cost you more like $40.
dramatic behaviour of these commodities on the world market summarises very clearly the growing crisis of the imperialist world system, the shifts of power that are taking within it inability oi bourgeoisie to control its future course.
If the 1960s witnessed the gradual run-down of the long capitalist boom after the post-war recovery, then the '70s saw it transformed into outright stagnation. The following table sums up the economic performance of the advanced the members Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) — both as a whole and some major individual cases:
Annuat average economic growth (in real terms] 1960s 1970s OECD as a whole 5.1% 3.5% 4.6 2.8 2.8 2.2 10.3 5.6 4.0 3.2 5.3 3.6 In the years 1974/75 stagnation turned into a full-scale recession, with almost all the major economies going into reverse gear. Inflation, mass unemployment — all the bogies of capitalist crisis which were supposed to be 'ancient history' - reappeared. In the 1960s the average rate of inflation in the QECD countries was 3 per cent a †year; in the '70s it was 8 per cent; in 1980 it will be over 9 per cent: In the 1960s the average rate of unemployment was under 3 per cent; today it is over 5 per cent and rising.
This is a classical capitalist crisis, brought on by the long-term decline in the rate of profit in the major imperialist countries and the resulting of capital accumulation reinvestment by capitalists of the surplus value tron the exploitation workers). The following table shows this clearly:
Average growth of business investment 1960-73 1973-78 4.9% 0.7% 4.0 3.5 14.3 0.2 4.2 0.2 4.6 -1.2 Inevitably this has produced a shake-up in the world economic order. The most spectacular development has been the relative decline of US imperialism. It has been increasingly unable to world's banker post-war international monetary set-up based or the US dollar came to an end as early as 1971 second shift was the O1 oil-producing countries with the formation of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the 'oil crisis' of 1974. For almost three decades the growth of the world's capitalist economies had depended heavily upon imported especially oil.
In all this time the price of oil had hardly riser at all. However, the so-called 'oil sheikhs' ha‹ progressively been turned into 'oil capitalists' and began to approach the matter from a strictly capitalist angle: they set up a cartel and started to jack the price of their product up to whatever the While the Western-based oil companies have also been major beneficiaries from this process, there is no doubt that the rise of OPEC represents a real shift in the balance of power in imperialist system. The following figures on 'current balances' (ie. how much a country has left over from its sales of goods and services abroad, after it has paid for imported goods and services, fund investments, measure of this:
two OECD as a whole US Japan Germany OPEC 1974-1979 will add another $80 billion.
such things foreign loans, aid, etc.) are a simple Cumulative current balances 1960s 1970.
$30 billion -$57 billion $33 billion -$400 million $3 billion $32.5 billion $40 billion $224 billion In 1980 it is expected that the OPEC countries As we enter the 1980s the imperialist system is another recession reminder that there is no end in sight to the What imperialism is doing at the moment is muddling its way from slump to sluggish recovery in a way that is laying generalised crises. The international interdependence of the world economy explains the character of both the this one. simultaneously affecting all the major imperialist countries The rise of OPÉC prevents the crisis being softened at the expense of one set of raw materials producers, but the non-oil producing countries in the Third World are still the worst-off victims. In 1973 these countries came out of their exchanges with the world economy $7.5 billion further in debt; in 1980 they will be $60 billion short. And little of the needed cash is coming from direct investment or'aid' — it has to be obtained on the world money market at ever-rising interest rates.
Some pointers for the 1980s * A continuing crisisof the imperialist system as a Watch out for further shifts in power. The row with OPEC is bound to hot up (and could spill economic to the political and And keep an eye on Japan. - it has suffered far the least from the crisis, has quietly built itself an economic empire throughout Asia tar bigger than anything dreamed about in the "30s, and is starting to compete with the US electronics industry on its home ground (not to • European car Continuing impoverishment of the non-oil producing third world countries, in turn fuelling for further revolutionary The least that can be said is that the 1980s will certainly be a challenging decade for socialists.
Intercontinental Press 1979: Year of Crisis for World Imperialism grene Statement on Spill from Four '1979: Year of Crisis for World Imperialism' is Intercontinental Press/inprecor [Vol 17, No 47]. Other material includes on-the-spot reportage from Iran, an assessment of the Nicaraguan revolution so far, and the statement on the splii in the Fourth International issued at the end of its Individual copies cost 30p plus 10p&p, subscriptions work out much cheaper at £ll for one year [48 issues], £6 for six months (24 issues), or £3 for 10 weeks. And if you subscribe now you will make sure of getting the special issue which will include all the main documents adopted by congress. Please make cheques/POs out to 'Intercontinental Press' ase send to: IP/I, PO Box 50, London N1 2XP.
Socialist Challenge 3 January 1980 Page 7